Mounting Pressures Descend Upon Iranian Regime
PRESSURES RISING: Pressures on the Iranian regime are mounting, from abroad and internal clashes between Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A panel discusses these events, on May 25, at Heritage Foundation. (Gary Feuerberg/Epoch Times Staff) WASHINGTONThe survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be tested in the coming weeks as it weathers mounting pressure from abroad and internal rifts among the ruling elite.
The regime has benefited, at least temporarily, from the turmoil of the Arab Spring as attention was diverted from Irans illicit nuclear program and its brutality in crushing the democracy movement. But now many international voices are calling for a refocus on Iran, based on frustration with the regimes nuclear program and long range missile development in defiance of United Nations sanctions, and its human rights abuses and support for terror.
Iran gives material support to groups defined by the United States as terrorist: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and armed groups in Iraq and Afghanistan. Being behind so much of the terrorism and chaos in the Middle East makes it harder than ever to make the case that the current 32-year policy of sanctions and containment of Iran has been effective.
In recent weeks, a power struggle between the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has led to political maneuvering and arrests that are almost certain to weaken the regimes authority.
The United States is ratcheting up the pressure with more enforcement of sanctions. Last week the European Union expanded its sanctions on Iran as well.
Moreover, President Obamas Middle East speech on May 19 signaled a shift in the U.S. view of the Iranian regimes protests of nearly two years ago from one of! neutral ity, to support for democracy and human rights activists. Obama is now calling for a transition to democracy in Iran as he did with other Middle East revolutions.
The pressure on Iran is only going to increase and very significantly, said Dr. Kenneth Katzman, specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. Katzman was speaking on a panel May 25 at the Heritage Foundation on Irans future and the role the United States should play to encourage democracy and regime change.
I do believe Irans energy sector is going to start to deteriorate substantially, Katzman said. Just the day before, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on seven foreign entities under the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA) of 2010, for their activities in support of Iran's energy sector.
Iran uses revenues from its energy sector to fund its nuclear program, as well as to mask procurement of dual-use items, said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg in announcing the sanctions on May 24.
Steinberg says the sanctions are having an effect, particularly in the refined petroleum sector. According to some reports, imports have dropped as much as 60 percent in some months since CISADA passed.
Iran has lost millions in potential revenue by converting petrochemical plants to produce gasoline to make up for their dramatic shortfall in gasoline imports. In addition, the State Department has also convinced the jet fuel suppliers in 17 cities in Europe and Asia to which IranAir flies to stop providing fuel, he said.
There is a worldwide ban on purchasing Iranian crude oil and natural gas.
Iran is increasingly being shut out of the international financial system," Katzman said. Many foreign investors have scaled back, stopped working, and announced leaving, said Katzman. Iranian refineries need to be upgraded, but the contractors who do that work are abiding by U.S. sanctions and! getting out.
Katzman also predicts an expansion of human rights sanctions against Iranian leaders. Increasingly, a number of [Iranian] officials will not be able to travel abroad, he said.Continued on the next page ... carrot-stick diplomacy doesnt work
The regime has benefited, at least temporarily, from the turmoil of the Arab Spring as attention was diverted from Irans illicit nuclear program and its brutality in crushing the democracy movement. But now many international voices are calling for a refocus on Iran, based on frustration with the regimes nuclear program and long range missile development in defiance of United Nations sanctions, and its human rights abuses and support for terror.
Iran gives material support to groups defined by the United States as terrorist: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and armed groups in Iraq and Afghanistan. Being behind so much of the terrorism and chaos in the Middle East makes it harder than ever to make the case that the current 32-year policy of sanctions and containment of Iran has been effective.
In recent weeks, a power struggle between the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has led to political maneuvering and arrests that are almost certain to weaken the regimes authority.
The United States is ratcheting up the pressure with more enforcement of sanctions. Last week the European Union expanded its sanctions on Iran as well.
Moreover, President Obamas Middle East speech on May 19 signaled a shift in the U.S. view of the Iranian regimes protests of nearly two years ago from one of! neutral ity, to support for democracy and human rights activists. Obama is now calling for a transition to democracy in Iran as he did with other Middle East revolutions.
The pressure on Iran is only going to increase and very significantly, said Dr. Kenneth Katzman, specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. Katzman was speaking on a panel May 25 at the Heritage Foundation on Irans future and the role the United States should play to encourage democracy and regime change.
I do believe Irans energy sector is going to start to deteriorate substantially, Katzman said. Just the day before, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on seven foreign entities under the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA) of 2010, for their activities in support of Iran's energy sector.
Iran uses revenues from its energy sector to fund its nuclear program, as well as to mask procurement of dual-use items, said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg in announcing the sanctions on May 24.
Steinberg says the sanctions are having an effect, particularly in the refined petroleum sector. According to some reports, imports have dropped as much as 60 percent in some months since CISADA passed.
Iran has lost millions in potential revenue by converting petrochemical plants to produce gasoline to make up for their dramatic shortfall in gasoline imports. In addition, the State Department has also convinced the jet fuel suppliers in 17 cities in Europe and Asia to which IranAir flies to stop providing fuel, he said.
There is a worldwide ban on purchasing Iranian crude oil and natural gas.
Iran is increasingly being shut out of the international financial system," Katzman said. Many foreign investors have scaled back, stopped working, and announced leaving, said Katzman. Iranian refineries need to be upgraded, but the contractors who do that work are abiding by U.S. sanctions and! getting out.
Katzman also predicts an expansion of human rights sanctions against Iranian leaders. Increasingly, a number of [Iranian] officials will not be able to travel abroad, he said.Continued on the next page ... carrot-stick diplomacy doesnt work
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